At least 300,000 jobs in industries
including computer services, tourism, package delivery and meat
processing may be lost if Congress doesn’t avert $1.2 trillion
in automatic federal spending cuts starting next year.
Across-the-board reductions in non-defense spending will
have a ripple effect over the next two years on companies that
aren’t government contractors, according to the Bipartisan
Policy Center in Washington, which made the forecast. Hundreds
of thousands more jobs are at risk from additional Defense
Department reductions, amid an 8.2 percent jobless rate in May.
“You are going to see reductions, frankly, in every area
of the American economy,” Dov Zakheim, a former Defense
Department comptroller who worked with the policy center, said
in an interview.
The cuts are part of $1.2 trillion in reductions to
domestic and defense programs that will start in 2013 if
Congress doesn’t act. They were required after talks failed last
year on a bipartisan plan to curb the U.S. deficit. The Defense
Department will bear half of the reductions and other government
agencies will share the rest, starting with about $55 billion in
2013.
Farm Subsidies
About $16.2 billion of that would come from mandatory
programs such as Medicare and farm subsidies, according to the
Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, a Washington group that
advocates for programs for lower-income and middle-class
Americans.
“I don’t like across-the-board meat-ax cuts,” Senator
Susan Collins, a Maine Republican, said in an interview. “We
should be making decisions.”
The reductions are a “swiftly ticking time bomb,” Scott Lilly, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress,
wrote on the Washington group’s website that says it promotes
“progressive ideas.”
Air Traffic
The Federal Aviation Administration may close air traffic
towers in smaller communities or reduce the number of air
traffic controllers as the result of a potential $1.5 billion
spending decline, Lilly said in a telephone interview. That may
lead package-delivery services, such as FedEx Corp. (FDX) (FDX) and United
Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) (UPS), to reduce flights, he said.
“FAA cuts would have deleterious impacts on operations,”
Danny Werfel, the controller at the Office of Management and
Budget, told the House Budget Committee in April. He also said
about 300 national parks would be fully or partially closed.
Cuts to the National Park Service budget may delay the
start of the summer season at Yellowstone National Park in
Wyoming for weeks, leaving hotels and restaurants without the
business tourists would bring, Lilly said.
While officials at Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) (LMT), the world’s
largest defense contractor, say it and other companies will stop
hiring and investing as the automatic changes near, many non-
defense companies are keeping quiet publicly.
‘Only Certainty’
“It would be premature to discuss specific impacts on our
business from any change in federal spending, given that options
are still being discussed by all sides,” Maury Donahue, manager
of regulatory and public affairs communications at Memphis,
Tennessee-based FedEx, said in an e-mail. Kara Ross, spokeswoman
for Atlanta-based UPS, said the company had no immediate
comment.
Companies have so many questions about the automatic cuts
“that the uncertainty is the only certainty right now for
everybody,” Stan Soloway, president of the Professional
Services Council, said in a telephone interview. The trade
group, located outside Washington in Arlington, Virginia,
represents the government professional and technical services
industry.
Fewer Hirings
The spending reductions may lead to a loss of 1 million
defense and non-defense jobs in 2013 and 2014 through fewer
hirings, along with attrition and layoffs, said Steve Bell,
senior director of the Bipartisan Policy Center’s economic
policy project. Of that number, at least 300,000 are unrelated
to defense, according to Bell and Zakheim. The group was created
in 2007 by four Republican and Democratic former Senate majority
leaders.
The U.S. economic recovery and job creation has become a
significant part of the debate in the presidential and
congressional elections. The Labor Department tomorrow will
issue its monthly employment report.
Guidance to Agencies
The White House Office of Management and Budget hasn’t
issued guidance to federal agencies on how to put the automatic
cuts in place. The Senate voted in June to seek reports from the
OMB on the reductions’ effect, and from President Barack Obama
on how the government would implement them. The House hasn’t
adopted similar measures.
To the extent that government agencies can decide what to
eliminate, “anything expendable will be at high risk,” said
Daniel Gordon, associate dean for government procurement law at
George Washington University Law School in Washington. “That
would include, in particular, professional services and
consultants, but also anything that involves investing in the
future,” such as information-technology improvements.
Hewlett-Packard Co. (HPQ) (HPQ), with $3.1 billion in government
contracts in 2011, and Dell Inc. (DELL) (DELL) with $1.4 billion, are among
the government’s top 50 contractors, according to a ranking of
200 federal industry leaders by Bloomberg Government. Neither
company responded to requests for comment.
Support Activities
Support activities that aren’t critical to a government
agency’s missions won’t “be a pleasant business to be in,”
said Rob Guerra, a partner at Guerra Kiviat Inc., a business
development company for federal contractors in Potomac,
Maryland. Help-desk positions, such as resetting computer
passwords, and companies with supplemental labor contracts for
receptionists or guards are “more susceptible,” he said.
The U.S. government spent about $540 billion in 2010 and
2011 on contractors, including all goods and services bought by
contract such as Air Force fighter planes and lawn-mowing
services in national parks, according to Gordon.
New Commitments
“Both the government and its contractors will be reluctant
to make new commitments in the months leading up to” January
when the automatic cuts start taking effect, Gordon said in an
e-mail. “I’d expect the government and contractors to do less
hiring than normal in October, November and December. I’d also
expect the federal agencies to delay decisions that commit them
to spend money, whether by hiring, contracts, or grants.”
The spending reductions will affect “everything you can
imagine,” Senator Mark Begich, an Alaska Democrat, said in an
interview.
The FAA may have to trim $900 million in salaries for air
traffic controllers, for a 10 percent to 12 percent loss of
their working hours, forcing some reductions in takeoffs and
landings, Lilly wrote on the Center for American Progress
website on June 18.
‘Major’ Hubs
“The FAA is going to do everything to avoid cutting back
services to the major hubs — if they do that then they will
devastate the rest of the country,” Lilly said in a telephone
interview. “I am from Springfield, Missouri — if they decide
to do that, it basically loses its airport.”
Commercial airlines may raise fares to make up for fewer
flights, passing on the hurt to travelers, Lilly said.
The U.S. Occupational Safety and Health Administration, as
part of the Labor Department, would conduct fewer workplace
inspections, “leading to diminished protection for workers,”
said Werfel, the federal controller.
The Food Safety Inspection Service has a budget of about $1
billion and a workforce of about 10,000. The 1906 Federal Meat
Inspection Act requires a federal inspector on the premises when
slaughterhouses, packing plants and poultry processing
facilities are in operation, according to Lilly.
Furlough Employees
“The agency may well have to furlough employees for about
20 million hours between Jan. 1 and Sept. 30, 2013,” Lilly
wrote on the center’s website. That may force companies such as
Hormel Foods Corp. (HRL) (HRL), Smithfield Foods Inc. (SFD) (SFD), Perdue Farms Inc.,
and Tyson Foods Inc. (TSN) (TSN) to suspend operations for certain periods
each week, he said.
“In the past, meat inspection has always been deemed to be
an essential service and not subject to furlough,” said Janet Riley, a spokeswoman for the Washington-based American Meat
Institute, whose members include Tyson, Hormel and Smithfield.
Tom Super, spokesman for the National Chicken Council,
which represents Perdue and other poultry companies, said in an
e-mail that the organization “would urge the administration
once again to classify meat and poultry inspectors as essential
personnel who are not subject to work stoppage due to a budget
impasse or budget cuts.”
Implementing Changes
Even as government agencies haven’t spelled out how they
would implement the automatic changes and companies are
reluctant to share their planning, the arm of Congress that
makes cost estimates for legislation and analyzes the budget is
feeling the pinch.
The Congressional Budget Office is “a very small piece of
the federal government, but our own decisions about whether to
replace people who leave is affected by the uncertainty of what
our funding will be next year,” CBO Director Doug Elmendorf
said last month. “That must play out in a much, much larger
scale with more significant enterprises than ours.”
To contact the reporter on this story:
Roxana Tiron in Washington at
rtiron@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Jodi Schneider at
jschneider50@bloomberg.net
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